Persistent summer high pressure and subsidence are keeping Houston under mostly clear, hot conditions for August 2, with model consensus from NWS and ECMWF pointing to afternoon highs in the upper 90s. Recent days have featured mid-90s to near-100 readings amid the season’s first notable heat wave, though a subtle ridge shift and possible weak front are expected to limit further intensification and produce modest moderation early in the month. High humidity, light winds, and the urban heat island effect support readings near the 98–99°F range that currently carries the highest market-implied probability. Ensembles show limited spread, with only modest chances for 100°F+ if the ridge lingers or for sub-97°F outcomes if cloud cover or showers increase. Updated NHC and local model runs over the next 24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.