Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月3日至8月9日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
8月3日至8月9日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
0 48%
1 31%
2 18%
3 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
0
48%
1
31%
2
18%
3
5%
4
2%
5
2%
>5
1%
0 48%
1 31%
2 18%
3 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
0
$992 交易量
48%
1
$205 交易量
31%
2
$92 交易量
18%
3
$77 交易量
5%
4
$106 交易量
2%
5
$50 交易量
2%
>5
$91 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
交易量
$1,613结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$1,613结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETGlobal earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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