Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
23% 概率
$240,989 交易量
$240,989 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 概率
$240,989 交易量
$240,989 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$240,989结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$240,989结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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