No at 89% reflects the low historical frequency of 10-kiloton-or-larger airbursts or impacts, combined with NASA’s ongoing NEO surveys that have identified no qualifying objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. Recent small fireballs, including a March 2026 event involving a roughly 7-ton object over Ohio, underscore that most detected meteors remain far below the energy threshold while planetary defense networks continue to track larger asteroids without raising alerts. With four-plus months remaining, traders price in the continued absence of any catalogued threat or sudden discovery capable of shifting odds before year-end.