Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年10月1日 - 31日 35%
截至2026年11月1日未恢复 27%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 17%
2026年9月1日至14日 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
2026年9月1日之前
7%
2026年9月1日至14日
13%
2026年9月15日 - 30日
17%
2026年10月1日 - 31日
35%
截至2026年11月1日未恢复
27%
2026年10月1日 - 31日 35%
截至2026年11月1日未恢复 27%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 17%
2026年9月1日至14日 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
2026年9月1日之前
$179 交易量
7%
2026年9月1日至14日
$29 交易量
13%
2026年9月15日 - 30日
$29 交易量
17%
2026年10月1日 - 31日
$189 交易量
35%
截至2026年11月1日未恢复
$120 交易量
27%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$546结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$546结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETOngoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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