SpaceX’s ongoing Starship flight-test campaign, now into Block 3 vehicles, is the main driver behind the near-even trader consensus. Booster tower catches and limited reuse have been demonstrated, yet the upper stage continues to encounter engine relight and controlled reentry issues that must be resolved for full rapid reusability of the integrated stack. Recent tests have delivered incremental data on propellant transfer and avionics but no confirmed end-to-end reuse cycle at operational cadence. Remaining 2026 flights, V3 architecture upgrades, and any successful ship catch or quick-turnaround attempt before year-end represent the decisive catalysts that could shift the balance.