SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5-6 55%
少于5次 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.1%
$493,114 交易量
$493,114 交易量
2026-12-30
少于5次
33%
5-6
55%
7-8
7%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 55%
少于5次 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.1%
$493,114 交易量
$493,114 交易量
2026-12-30
少于5次
$99,154 交易量
33%
5-6
$113,820 交易量
55%
7-8
$158,488 交易量
7%
9-10
$61,502 交易量
3%
11-12
$8,397 交易量
3%
13-14
$9,172 交易量
<1%
15-16
$30,073 交易量
<1%
>16
$12,509 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$493,114结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$493,114结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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