Enhanced global surveillance, including expanded genomic sequencing and wastewater monitoring since COVID-19, has reduced undetected spillover risks, supporting the 83.5% market-implied probability of no new pandemic before 2028. Current CDC and WHO assessments classify threats like H5N1 avian influenza as low-risk for sustained human-to-human transmission, with only isolated cases reported through mid-2026 and no evidence of reassortment enabling pandemic potential. Regional outbreaks of mpox, Ebola variants, and arboviruses remain geographically contained without exponential growth. Historical pandemic frequency—roughly once per decade or longer—combined with post-pandemic preparedness gains further aligns trader consensus with these conditions, though evolving viral dynamics in reservoirs warrant continued monitoring through 2027.