Severe drought and prolonged heatwaves across central and eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows in Hungary and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026, disrupting shipping, hydropower, and nuclear cooling at facilities such as Paks. Trader consensus splits closely between mid-to-late September and full October recovery, reflecting uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to replenish the basin. Short-term forecasts show no immediate relief, while seasonal patterns indicate that cooler, wetter conditions typically arrive after summer. A sustained dry spell or early heavy rains could quickly separate the leading intervals by altering hydrological models and navigation gauges.