Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月2日旧金山气温最高？
8月2日旧金山气温最高？
76-77°F 33%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
67°F或以下
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
33%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
2%
华氏86度或更高
1%
76-77°F 33%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
67°F或以下
$0 交易量
1%
68-69°F
$23 交易量
1%
70-71°F
$23 交易量
1%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
8%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
25%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
33%
78-79°F
$8 交易量
18%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
5%
82-83°F
$26 交易量
1%
84-85°F
$6 交易量
2%
华氏86度或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$85结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$85结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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