Persistent cloud cover, thundery showers, and light winds associated with a moist summer monsoon pattern are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling over Chengdu, keeping the August 1 maximum near 26–28°C according to recent AccuWeather and BBC model runs. These conditions suppress temperatures well below the 30–33°C seasonal climatological average for early August, when clear-sky radiative heating would otherwise dominate. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 27°C, alongside elevated shares for 26°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in shower timing that could permit brief warming spikes. Updated model guidance expected later today will clarify whether any clearing allows the peak to reach the upper end of the favored range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日成都气温最高？
8月1日成都气温最高？
27°C 50%
26°C 22%
28°C 13%
29°C 9%
$47,485 交易量
$47,485 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
22%
27°C
50%
28°C
13%
29°C
9%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C或更高
<1%
27°C 50%
26°C 22%
28°C 13%
29°C 9%
$47,485 交易量
$47,485 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
$702 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,445 交易量
<1%
24°C
$2,826 交易量
<1%
25°C
$8,472 交易量
<1%
26°C
$6,826 交易量
22%
27°C
$1,949 交易量
50%
28°C
$2,056 交易量
13%
29°C
$2,640 交易量
9%
30°C
$3,833 交易量
2%
31°C
$4,996 交易量
<1%
32°C或更高
$11,740 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, thundery showers, and light winds associated with a moist summer monsoon pattern are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling over Chengdu, keeping the August 1 maximum near 26–28°C according to recent AccuWeather and BBC model runs. These conditions suppress temperatures well below the 30–33°C seasonal climatological average for early August, when clear-sky radiative heating would otherwise dominate. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 27°C, alongside elevated shares for 26°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in shower timing that could permit brief warming spikes. Updated model guidance expected later today will clarify whether any clearing allows the peak to reach the upper end of the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$47,485结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, thundery showers, and light winds associated with a moist summer monsoon pattern are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling over Chengdu, keeping the August 1 maximum near 26–28°C according to recent AccuWeather and BBC model runs. These conditions suppress temperatures well below the 30–33°C seasonal climatological average for early August, when clear-sky radiative heating would otherwise dominate. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 27°C, alongside elevated shares for 26°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in shower timing that could permit brief warming spikes. Updated model guidance expected later today will clarify whether any clearing allows the peak to reach the upper end of the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$47,485结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETPersistent cloud cover, thundery showers, and light winds associated with a moist summer monsoon pattern are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling over Chengdu, keeping the August 1 maximum near 26–28°C according to recent AccuWeather and BBC model runs. These conditions suppress temperatures well below the 30–33°C seasonal climatological average for early August, when clear-sky radiative heating would otherwise dominate. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 27°C, alongside elevated shares for 26°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in shower timing that could permit brief warming spikes. Updated model guidance expected later today will clarify whether any clearing allows the peak to reach the upper end of the favored range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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