Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日熱帯低気圧「サウデル」はどのくらい強くなりますか？
熱帯低気圧「サウデル」はどのくらい強くなりますか？
非常に強い台風 86%
猛烈な台風 14%
台風 1.6%
熱帯性暴風雨 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
熱帯性暴風雨
<1%
強い熱帯性暴風雨
<1%
台風
2%
非常に強い台風
86%
猛烈な台風
14%
非常に強い台風 86%
猛烈な台風 14%
台風 1.6%
熱帯性暴風雨 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
熱帯性暴風雨
$663 Vol.
<1%
強い熱帯性暴風雨
$606 Vol.
<1%
台風
$1,436 Vol.
2%
非常に強い台風
$1,496 Vol.
86%
猛烈な台風
$3,195 Vol.
14%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
音量
$7,396終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETThis market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
音量
$7,396終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETRecent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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