Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to produce elevated vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation through the peak months. As of late July, only two named storms have developed with season-to-date Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 2.6—72% below the 1991-2020 average—while official outlooks project just 3-6 hurricanes for the entire June-November period. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of a hurricane reaching the U.S. coastline during August, the climatological start of peak activity, consistent with historical analogs of El Niño-influenced seasons featuring minimal early landfall risk. Updated model guidance and early August tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for traders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ハリケーンは8月に米国に上陸しますか？
ハリケーンは8月に米国に上陸しますか？
はい
新規
新規
2026/09/01
はい
新規
新規
2026/09/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to produce elevated vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation through the peak months. As of late July, only two named storms have developed with season-to-date Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 2.6—72% below the 1991-2020 average—while official outlooks project just 3-6 hurricanes for the entire June-November period. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of a hurricane reaching the U.S. coastline during August, the climatological start of peak activity, consistent with historical analogs of El Niño-influenced seasons featuring minimal early landfall risk. Updated model guidance and early August tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
音量
$596終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to produce elevated vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation through the peak months. As of late July, only two named storms have developed with season-to-date Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 2.6—72% below the 1991-2020 average—while official outlooks project just 3-6 hurricanes for the entire June-November period. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of a hurricane reaching the U.S. coastline during August, the climatological start of peak activity, consistent with historical analogs of El Niño-influenced seasons featuring minimal early landfall risk. Updated model guidance and early August tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
音量
$596終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to produce elevated vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation through the peak months. As of late July, only two named storms have developed with season-to-date Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 2.6—72% below the 1991-2020 average—while official outlooks project just 3-6 hurricanes for the entire June-November period. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of a hurricane reaching the U.S. coastline during August, the climatological start of peak activity, consistent with historical analogs of El Niño-influenced seasons featuring minimal early landfall risk. Updated model guidance and early August tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for traders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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