Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 23 is expected to settle near 25°C under typical late-summer conditions, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts showing a narrow range around the daily normal low of 22.9°C modified by urban heat retention and humidity. Persistent southerly flow, scattered showers, and high dew points have prevented significant radiative cooling, locking market-implied odds at 100% for the 25°C outcome as station data approach resolution thresholds. Only a late-arriving cold surge or prolonged clear-sky radiative loss could realistically push readings to 23°C or below, though current model consensus and historical August climatology make such shifts improbable before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 23?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$10,428 Vol.
$10,428 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$10,428 Vol.
$10,428 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
$393 Vol.
No
21°C
$781 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,015 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,288 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,799 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,999 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$1,122 Vol.
No
27°C
$245 Vol.
No
28°C
$312 Vol.
No
29°C
$229 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$244 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 23 is expected to settle near 25°C under typical late-summer conditions, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts showing a narrow range around the daily normal low of 22.9°C modified by urban heat retention and humidity. Persistent southerly flow, scattered showers, and high dew points have prevented significant radiative cooling, locking market-implied odds at 100% for the 25°C outcome as station data approach resolution thresholds. Only a late-arriving cold surge or prolonged clear-sky radiative loss could realistically push readings to 23°C or below, though current model consensus and historical August climatology make such shifts improbable before official verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$10,428End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 23 is expected to settle near 25°C under typical late-summer conditions, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts showing a narrow range around the daily normal low of 22.9°C modified by urban heat retention and humidity. Persistent southerly flow, scattered showers, and high dew points have prevented significant radiative cooling, locking market-implied odds at 100% for the 25°C outcome as station data approach resolution thresholds. Only a late-arriving cold surge or prolonged clear-sky radiative loss could realistically push readings to 23°C or below, though current model consensus and historical August climatology make such shifts improbable before official verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,428End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 23 is expected to settle near 25°C under typical late-summer conditions, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts showing a narrow range around the daily normal low of 22.9°C modified by urban heat retention and humidity. Persistent southerly flow, scattered showers, and high dew points have prevented significant radiative cooling, locking market-implied odds at 100% for the 25°C outcome as station data approach resolution thresholds. Only a late-arriving cold surge or prolonged clear-sky radiative loss could realistically push readings to 23°C or below, though current model consensus and historical August climatology make such shifts improbable before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions