**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C low in Tokyo on August 24, 2026, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts of a 25°C minimum under high pressure with partly cloudy skies, southerly flow, and high humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 23–25°C amid the seasonal warm, moist air mass, with recent model runs and current conditions (highs near 31–34°C on the 23rd) supporting minimal drop. The 94% implied probability on 26°C captures the tight clustering around official guidance, while lower probabilities on 25°C or below acknowledge residual model spread and urban heat effects. A stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover could realistically push the observed low to 25°C or cooler before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
26°C 97%
25°C 6%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
97%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
26°C 97%
25°C 6%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$554 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$836 Vol.
1%
24°C
$397 Vol.
1%
25°C
$936 Vol.
6%
26°C
$640 Vol.
97%
27°C
$657 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C low in Tokyo on August 24, 2026, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts of a 25°C minimum under high pressure with partly cloudy skies, southerly flow, and high humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 23–25°C amid the seasonal warm, moist air mass, with recent model runs and current conditions (highs near 31–34°C on the 23rd) supporting minimal drop. The 94% implied probability on 26°C captures the tight clustering around official guidance, while lower probabilities on 25°C or below acknowledge residual model spread and urban heat effects. A stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover could realistically push the observed low to 25°C or cooler before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,156End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C low in Tokyo on August 24, 2026, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts of a 25°C minimum under high pressure with partly cloudy skies, southerly flow, and high humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 23–25°C amid the seasonal warm, moist air mass, with recent model runs and current conditions (highs near 31–34°C on the 23rd) supporting minimal drop. The 94% implied probability on 26°C captures the tight clustering around official guidance, while lower probabilities on 25°C or below acknowledge residual model spread and urban heat effects. A stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover could realistically push the observed low to 25°C or cooler before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,156End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C low in Tokyo on August 24, 2026, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts of a 25°C minimum under high pressure with partly cloudy skies, southerly flow, and high humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 23–25°C amid the seasonal warm, moist air mass, with recent model runs and current conditions (highs near 31–34°C on the 23rd) supporting minimal drop. The 94% implied probability on 26°C captures the tight clustering around official guidance, while lower probabilities on 25°C or below acknowledge residual model spread and urban heat effects. A stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover could realistically push the observed low to 25°C or cooler before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions