Recent forecasts from Brazil’s INMET and international ensembles position morning minimum temperatures in São Paulo near 12–14 °C for August 23, driving the heavy market weighting toward 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing strong cold-air advection typical of stronger frontal passages. These conditions align with climatological August averages near 16 °C yet reflect a modest cool bias in the latest model runs. Historical data show occasional dips below 12 °C when high pressure strengthens, keeping lower-probability contracts like 9–11 °C active but secondary. Traders are monitoring the next INMET update and overnight observations for any revision in the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
9°C 80%
13°C 42%
11°C 6%
10°C 5%
$1,052 Vol.
$1,052 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
80%
10°C
5%
11°C
6%
12°C
4%
13°C
42%
14°C
59%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
9°C 80%
13°C 42%
11°C 6%
10°C 5%
$1,052 Vol.
$1,052 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
9°C
$5 Vol.
80%
10°C
$5 Vol.
5%
11°C
$4 Vol.
6%
12°C
$21 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
42%
14°C
$21 Vol.
59%
15°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$590 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Brazil’s INMET and international ensembles position morning minimum temperatures in São Paulo near 12–14 °C for August 23, driving the heavy market weighting toward 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing strong cold-air advection typical of stronger frontal passages. These conditions align with climatological August averages near 16 °C yet reflect a modest cool bias in the latest model runs. Historical data show occasional dips below 12 °C when high pressure strengthens, keeping lower-probability contracts like 9–11 °C active but secondary. Traders are monitoring the next INMET update and overnight observations for any revision in the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,052End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Brazil’s INMET and international ensembles position morning minimum temperatures in São Paulo near 12–14 °C for August 23, driving the heavy market weighting toward 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing strong cold-air advection typical of stronger frontal passages. These conditions align with climatological August averages near 16 °C yet reflect a modest cool bias in the latest model runs. Historical data show occasional dips below 12 °C when high pressure strengthens, keeping lower-probability contracts like 9–11 °C active but secondary. Traders are monitoring the next INMET update and overnight observations for any revision in the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,052End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Brazil’s INMET and international ensembles position morning minimum temperatures in São Paulo near 12–14 °C for August 23, driving the heavy market weighting toward 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing strong cold-air advection typical of stronger frontal passages. These conditions align with climatological August averages near 16 °C yet reflect a modest cool bias in the latest model runs. Historical data show occasional dips below 12 °C when high pressure strengthens, keeping lower-probability contracts like 9–11 °C active but secondary. Traders are monitoring the next INMET update and overnight observations for any revision in the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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