**Late August in Chongqing features typical overnight lows of 23–27°C amid subtropical humidity and basin topography that traps warm, moist air.** With the market showing a near-even split (47% for 21°C or below versus 47% for 31°C or higher) and clustered probabilities around 24–28°C, traders are pricing in forecast uncertainty for the August 25 minimum just 48 hours out. Short-term numerical weather prediction models (e.g., from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration) can diverge on cloud cover, convective rainfall, and any weak frontal passages or residual monsoon influences that modulate nighttime radiative cooling. Precipitation or thicker cloud decks would favor cooler minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and limiting heat retention, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure could push lows toward the upper end of the historical range. Historical analogs show occasional 1–3°C deviations from climatology driven by these factors, and the tight clustering around 25–27°C reflects the narrow window for model consensus before resolution. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next day will likely sharpen the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on August 25?
31°C or higher 96%
21°C or below 84%
22°C 42%
23°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
84%
22°C
42%
23°C
42%
24°C
22%
25°C
26%
26°C
-
27°C
27%
28°C
26%
29°C
22%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
96%
31°C or higher 96%
21°C or below 84%
22°C 42%
23°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
84%
22°C
$5 Vol.
42%
23°C
$5 Vol.
42%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
-
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$0 Vol.
22%
30°C
$5 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Late August in Chongqing features typical overnight lows of 23–27°C amid subtropical humidity and basin topography that traps warm, moist air.** With the market showing a near-even split (47% for 21°C or below versus 47% for 31°C or higher) and clustered probabilities around 24–28°C, traders are pricing in forecast uncertainty for the August 25 minimum just 48 hours out. Short-term numerical weather prediction models (e.g., from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration) can diverge on cloud cover, convective rainfall, and any weak frontal passages or residual monsoon influences that modulate nighttime radiative cooling.
Precipitation or thicker cloud decks would favor cooler minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and limiting heat retention, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure could push lows toward the upper end of the historical range. Historical analogs show occasional 1–3°C deviations from climatology driven by these factors, and the tight clustering around 25–27°C reflects the narrow window for model consensus before resolution. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next day will likely sharpen the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Late August in Chongqing features typical overnight lows of 23–27°C amid subtropical humidity and basin topography that traps warm, moist air.** With the market showing a near-even split (47% for 21°C or below versus 47% for 31°C or higher) and clustered probabilities around 24–28°C, traders are pricing in forecast uncertainty for the August 25 minimum just 48 hours out. Short-term numerical weather prediction models (e.g., from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration) can diverge on cloud cover, convective rainfall, and any weak frontal passages or residual monsoon influences that modulate nighttime radiative cooling.
Precipitation or thicker cloud decks would favor cooler minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and limiting heat retention, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure could push lows toward the upper end of the historical range. Historical analogs show occasional 1–3°C deviations from climatology driven by these factors, and the tight clustering around 25–27°C reflects the narrow window for model consensus before resolution. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next day will likely sharpen the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Late August in Chongqing features typical overnight lows of 23–27°C amid subtropical humidity and basin topography that traps warm, moist air.** With the market showing a near-even split (47% for 21°C or below versus 47% for 31°C or higher) and clustered probabilities around 24–28°C, traders are pricing in forecast uncertainty for the August 25 minimum just 48 hours out. Short-term numerical weather prediction models (e.g., from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration) can diverge on cloud cover, convective rainfall, and any weak frontal passages or residual monsoon influences that modulate nighttime radiative cooling. Precipitation or thicker cloud decks would favor cooler minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and limiting heat retention, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure could push lows toward the upper end of the historical range. Historical analogs show occasional 1–3°C deviations from climatology driven by these factors, and the tight clustering around 25–27°C reflects the narrow window for model consensus before resolution. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next day will likely sharpen the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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