**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 15, 2026, with 15°C a close second if a mild northerly flow lingers.** Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to variable westerly and southerly winds typically keep August highs near the 12–14°C climatological average, and the current setup aligns with that baseline after an earlier Antarctic blast gave way to above-average warmth from subtropical air. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures for the region through the month, while short-range models show light rain or showers and moderate winds that should cap daytime heating. Traders have incorporated the latest model consensus and observed recent daily maxima (including a 16°C reading earlier in August) into the market-implied odds, which heavily favor the narrow 14–15°C band. New forecast updates or a stronger southerly change could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
14°C 54%
15°C 32%
16°C 8%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
7%
14°C
54%
15°C
32%
16°C
8%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 54%
15°C 32%
16°C 8%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$169 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,012 Vol.
3%
13°C
$1,803 Vol.
7%
14°C
$756 Vol.
54%
15°C
$1,422 Vol.
32%
16°C
$562 Vol.
8%
17°C
$189 Vol.
1%
18°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 15, 2026, with 15°C a close second if a mild northerly flow lingers.** Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to variable westerly and southerly winds typically keep August highs near the 12–14°C climatological average, and the current setup aligns with that baseline after an earlier Antarctic blast gave way to above-average warmth from subtropical air.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures for the region through the month, while short-range models show light rain or showers and moderate winds that should cap daytime heating. Traders have incorporated the latest model consensus and observed recent daily maxima (including a 16°C reading earlier in August) into the market-implied odds, which heavily favor the narrow 14–15°C band. New forecast updates or a stronger southerly change could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,059End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 15, 2026, with 15°C a close second if a mild northerly flow lingers.** Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to variable westerly and southerly winds typically keep August highs near the 12–14°C climatological average, and the current setup aligns with that baseline after an earlier Antarctic blast gave way to above-average warmth from subtropical air.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures for the region through the month, while short-range models show light rain or showers and moderate winds that should cap daytime heating. Traders have incorporated the latest model consensus and observed recent daily maxima (including a 16°C reading earlier in August) into the market-implied odds, which heavily favor the narrow 14–15°C band. New forecast updates or a stronger southerly change could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,059End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 15, 2026, with 15°C a close second if a mild northerly flow lingers.** Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to variable westerly and southerly winds typically keep August highs near the 12–14°C climatological average, and the current setup aligns with that baseline after an earlier Antarctic blast gave way to above-average warmth from subtropical air. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures for the region through the month, while short-range models show light rain or showers and moderate winds that should cap daytime heating. Traders have incorporated the latest model consensus and observed recent daily maxima (including a 16°C reading earlier in August) into the market-implied odds, which heavily favor the narrow 14–15°C band. New forecast updates or a stronger southerly change could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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