Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 20%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
26%
20°C
45%
21°C
20%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 20%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$283 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$19 Vol.
5%
17°C
$402 Vol.
2%
18°C
$206 Vol.
7%
19°C
$321 Vol.
26%
20°C
$299 Vol.
45%
21°C
$251 Vol.
20%
22°C
$245 Vol.
6%
23°C
$5 Vol.
5%
24°C
$58 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,147End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,147End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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