**Persistent hot conditions driven by subtropical high pressure and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin are keeping overnight lows elevated in Hong Kong.** With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for August–October 2026 and recent daily minima clustered around 26–28°C amid the current heatwave, traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum of 28°C (41%) or 29°C (29%) on August 13. Model guidance shows limited cooling potential through the period, as subsiding air maintains clear to partly cloudy skies and suppresses typical monsoon-driven drops. Historical August climatology places average overnight lows near 27°C, providing a baseline that aligns with the market’s concentration on 27–29°C outcomes (combined ~90% probability). Any shift would require an unexpected frontal passage or increased cloud cover and rainfall, neither of which is indicated in the latest official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?
28°C 41%
29°C 28%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
8%
25°C
5%
26°C
4%
27°C
17%
28°C
41%
29°C
28%
30°C
3%
31°C
7%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 41%
29°C 28%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
$27 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$27 Vol.
1%
24°C
$27 Vol.
8%
25°C
$350 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$43 Vol.
17%
28°C
$170 Vol.
41%
29°C
$346 Vol.
28%
30°C
$884 Vol.
3%
31°C
$161 Vol.
7%
32°C or higher
$48 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent hot conditions driven by subtropical high pressure and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin are keeping overnight lows elevated in Hong Kong.** With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for August–October 2026 and recent daily minima clustered around 26–28°C amid the current heatwave, traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum of 28°C (41%) or 29°C (29%) on August 13. Model guidance shows limited cooling potential through the period, as subsiding air maintains clear to partly cloudy skies and suppresses typical monsoon-driven drops. Historical August climatology places average overnight lows near 27°C, providing a baseline that aligns with the market’s concentration on 27–29°C outcomes (combined ~90% probability). Any shift would require an unexpected frontal passage or increased cloud cover and rainfall, neither of which is indicated in the latest official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,953End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent hot conditions driven by subtropical high pressure and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin are keeping overnight lows elevated in Hong Kong.** With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for August–October 2026 and recent daily minima clustered around 26–28°C amid the current heatwave, traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum of 28°C (41%) or 29°C (29%) on August 13. Model guidance shows limited cooling potential through the period, as subsiding air maintains clear to partly cloudy skies and suppresses typical monsoon-driven drops. Historical August climatology places average overnight lows near 27°C, providing a baseline that aligns with the market’s concentration on 27–29°C outcomes (combined ~90% probability). Any shift would require an unexpected frontal passage or increased cloud cover and rainfall, neither of which is indicated in the latest official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,953End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent hot conditions driven by subtropical high pressure and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin are keeping overnight lows elevated in Hong Kong.** With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for August–October 2026 and recent daily minima clustered around 26–28°C amid the current heatwave, traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum of 28°C (41%) or 29°C (29%) on August 13. Model guidance shows limited cooling potential through the period, as subsiding air maintains clear to partly cloudy skies and suppresses typical monsoon-driven drops. Historical August climatology places average overnight lows near 27°C, providing a baseline that aligns with the market’s concentration on 27–29°C outcomes (combined ~90% probability). Any shift would require an unexpected frontal passage or increased cloud cover and rainfall, neither of which is indicated in the latest official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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