Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions Munich's August 11 maximum near 31–32 °C under high pressure, light westerly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating. Official outlooks from DWD-aligned sources and extended guidance show daytime peaks in the low 30s Celsius, with limited cloud cover or precipitation risk that could suppress temperatures. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, though small shifts in 850 hPa thickness or afternoon mixing could still push readings a degree either side. Historical August extremes for the region average 23–25 °C, underscoring the current anomaly and supporting elevated probabilities for 31–33 °C buckets ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 11?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
33°C 17%
30°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
17%
31°C
32%
32°C
37%
33°C
17%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
33°C 17%
30°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
1%
29°C
$5 Vol.
5%
30°C
$138 Vol.
17%
31°C
$168 Vol.
32%
32°C
$11 Vol.
37%
33°C
$22 Vol.
17%
34°C
$5 Vol.
3%
35°C
$33 Vol.
2%
36°C
$10 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions Munich's August 11 maximum near 31–32 °C under high pressure, light westerly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating. Official outlooks from DWD-aligned sources and extended guidance show daytime peaks in the low 30s Celsius, with limited cloud cover or precipitation risk that could suppress temperatures. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, though small shifts in 850 hPa thickness or afternoon mixing could still push readings a degree either side. Historical August extremes for the region average 23–25 °C, underscoring the current anomaly and supporting elevated probabilities for 31–33 °C buckets ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$407End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions Munich's August 11 maximum near 31–32 °C under high pressure, light westerly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating. Official outlooks from DWD-aligned sources and extended guidance show daytime peaks in the low 30s Celsius, with limited cloud cover or precipitation risk that could suppress temperatures. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, though small shifts in 850 hPa thickness or afternoon mixing could still push readings a degree either side. Historical August extremes for the region average 23–25 °C, underscoring the current anomaly and supporting elevated probabilities for 31–33 °C buckets ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$407End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions Munich's August 11 maximum near 31–32 °C under high pressure, light westerly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating. Official outlooks from DWD-aligned sources and extended guidance show daytime peaks in the low 30s Celsius, with limited cloud cover or precipitation risk that could suppress temperatures. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, though small shifts in 850 hPa thickness or afternoon mixing could still push readings a degree either side. Historical August extremes for the region average 23–25 °C, underscoring the current anomaly and supporting elevated probabilities for 31–33 °C buckets ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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