Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate Shanghai may see increased cloud cover, thunderstorms, and precipitation around August 9, 2026, moderating peak temperatures amid typical late-summer humidity and East Asian monsoon influences. This supports the market's leading implied probabilities for a 29°C or 30°C high, consistent with historical August maxima averaging near 31°C but often reduced by 2–4°C under overcast or rainy conditions. Model consensus shows variability in storm timing and intensity that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two, while recent observational trends of slightly cooler patterns ahead of the date have reinforced trader positioning around these thresholds rather than higher extremes. Updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine landfall or frontal impacts influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
29°C 44%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 10%
NEW
$21,809 Vol.
NEW
$21,809 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
8%
28°C
16%
29°C
44%
30°C
26%
31°C
10%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 10%
NEW
$21,809 Vol.
NEW
$21,809 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
$7,723 Vol.
1%
25°C
$4,710 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,021 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,571 Vol.
8%
28°C
$1,213 Vol.
16%
29°C
$2,752 Vol.
44%
30°C
$2,440 Vol.
26%
31°C
$1,143 Vol.
10%
32°C
$246 Vol.
2%
33°C
$259 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate Shanghai may see increased cloud cover, thunderstorms, and precipitation around August 9, 2026, moderating peak temperatures amid typical late-summer humidity and East Asian monsoon influences. This supports the market's leading implied probabilities for a 29°C or 30°C high, consistent with historical August maxima averaging near 31°C but often reduced by 2–4°C under overcast or rainy conditions. Model consensus shows variability in storm timing and intensity that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two, while recent observational trends of slightly cooler patterns ahead of the date have reinforced trader positioning around these thresholds rather than higher extremes. Updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine landfall or frontal impacts influencing resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,809End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate Shanghai may see increased cloud cover, thunderstorms, and precipitation around August 9, 2026, moderating peak temperatures amid typical late-summer humidity and East Asian monsoon influences. This supports the market's leading implied probabilities for a 29°C or 30°C high, consistent with historical August maxima averaging near 31°C but often reduced by 2–4°C under overcast or rainy conditions. Model consensus shows variability in storm timing and intensity that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two, while recent observational trends of slightly cooler patterns ahead of the date have reinforced trader positioning around these thresholds rather than higher extremes. Updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine landfall or frontal impacts influencing resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,809End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate Shanghai may see increased cloud cover, thunderstorms, and precipitation around August 9, 2026, moderating peak temperatures amid typical late-summer humidity and East Asian monsoon influences. This supports the market's leading implied probabilities for a 29°C or 30°C high, consistent with historical August maxima averaging near 31°C but often reduced by 2–4°C under overcast or rainy conditions. Model consensus shows variability in storm timing and intensity that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two, while recent observational trends of slightly cooler patterns ahead of the date have reinforced trader positioning around these thresholds rather than higher extremes. Updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine landfall or frontal impacts influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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