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icon for What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

icon for What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%

Typhoon <1%

Severe Tropical Storm <1%

Tropical Storm <1%

Polymarket

$41,116 Vol.

Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%

Typhoon <1%

Severe Tropical Storm <1%

Tropical Storm <1%

Polymarket

$41,116 Vol.

Tropical Storm

$1,354 Vol.

<1%

Severe Tropical Storm

$3,484 Vol.

<1%

Typhoon

$14,143 Vol.

<1%

Very Strong Typhoon

$9,234 Vol.

99%

Violent Typhoon

$5,498 Vol.

<1%

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current model consensus and recent satellite observations indicate Typhoon Dolphin will approach Okinawa with sustained winds supporting Very Strong Typhoon status at landfall, driven by elevated ocean heat content along its track and limited vertical wind shear. The system has maintained or briefly regained Category 3-equivalent intensity after eyewall replacement cycles, with deterministic guidance showing high agreement on a westward path and only gradual weakening before impact. Historical analogs from similar western Pacific systems reinforce this trajectory under a reoriented subtropical ridge. Rapid weakening from unexpected shear increases or earlier land interaction with the Ryukyu Islands could shift outcomes toward lower categories, though current forecasts assign low probability to such scenarios before the primary landfall window.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$41,116
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current model consensus and recent satellite observations indicate Typhoon Dolphin will approach Okinawa with sustained winds supporting Very Strong Typhoon status at landfall, driven by elevated ocean heat content along its track and limited vertical wind shear. The system has maintained or briefly regained Category 3-equivalent intensity after eyewall replacement cycles, with deterministic guidance showing high agreement on a westward path and only gradual weakening before impact. Historical analogs from similar western Pacific systems reinforce this trajectory under a reoriented subtropical ridge. Rapid weakening from unexpected shear increases or earlier land interaction with the Ryukyu Islands could shift outcomes toward lower categories, though current forecasts assign low probability to such scenarios before the primary landfall window.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$41,116
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Very Strong Typhoon" at 99%, followed by "Tropical Storm" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" has generated $41.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" is "Very Strong Typhoon" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tropical Storm" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.