Recent forecast updates from global models show a cooling trend for Shanghai on August 8 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers associated with the East Asian monsoon trough, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. This has narrowed the market-implied range tightly around 32–33°C, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity that could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C compared to clearer conditions. Historical climatology places August highs near 31–32°C, but recent heat with peaks near 35–36°C highlights how subtle shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries can differentiate outcomes between these closely matched probabilities. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?
32°C 35%
33°C 35%
31°C 16%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
16%
32°C
35%
33°C
35%
34°C
11%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
2%
32°C 35%
33°C 35%
31°C 16%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
27°C or below
$75 Vol.
1%
28°C
$75 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$80 Vol.
1%
30°C
$813 Vol.
6%
31°C
$686 Vol.
16%
32°C
$297 Vol.
35%
33°C
$151 Vol.
35%
34°C
$162 Vol.
11%
35°C
$137 Vol.
2%
36°C
$16 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from global models show a cooling trend for Shanghai on August 8 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers associated with the East Asian monsoon trough, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. This has narrowed the market-implied range tightly around 32–33°C, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity that could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C compared to clearer conditions. Historical climatology places August highs near 31–32°C, but recent heat with peaks near 35–36°C highlights how subtle shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries can differentiate outcomes between these closely matched probabilities. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,390End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from global models show a cooling trend for Shanghai on August 8 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers associated with the East Asian monsoon trough, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. This has narrowed the market-implied range tightly around 32–33°C, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity that could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C compared to clearer conditions. Historical climatology places August highs near 31–32°C, but recent heat with peaks near 35–36°C highlights how subtle shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries can differentiate outcomes between these closely matched probabilities. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,390End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from global models show a cooling trend for Shanghai on August 8 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers associated with the East Asian monsoon trough, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. This has narrowed the market-implied range tightly around 32–33°C, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity that could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C compared to clearer conditions. Historical climatology places August highs near 31–32°C, but recent heat with peaks near 35–36°C highlights how subtle shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries can differentiate outcomes between these closely matched probabilities. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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