**Forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a minimum temperature of 28°C for Shanghai on August 6, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probability of 53% for 28°C.** Subtropical monsoon conditions in early August typically sustain elevated overnight lows through high humidity (often 50-80%) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies, preventing drops below seasonal norms of 25-28°C. Recent model consensus shows stable warm air masses with no incoming cold fronts or significant rain events that could enhance cooling, supporting the tight clustering around 27-29°C outcomes. Historical August data reinforces this baseline, with rare deviations only from atypical typhoon influences or persistent overcast periods—neither of which current guidance projects for this date. Traders appear to weight these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily, as the two-day horizon limits major shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 6?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 6?
28°C 53%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C
5%
27°C
25%
28°C
53%
29°C
17%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 53%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$27 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$10 Vol.
5%
27°C
$20 Vol.
25%
28°C
$66 Vol.
53%
29°C
$31 Vol.
17%
30°C
$52 Vol.
1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a minimum temperature of 28°C for Shanghai on August 6, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probability of 53% for 28°C.**
Subtropical monsoon conditions in early August typically sustain elevated overnight lows through high humidity (often 50-80%) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies, preventing drops below seasonal norms of 25-28°C. Recent model consensus shows stable warm air masses with no incoming cold fronts or significant rain events that could enhance cooling, supporting the tight clustering around 27-29°C outcomes. Historical August data reinforces this baseline, with rare deviations only from atypical typhoon influences or persistent overcast periods—neither of which current guidance projects for this date. Traders appear to weight these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily, as the two-day horizon limits major shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$217End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a minimum temperature of 28°C for Shanghai on August 6, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probability of 53% for 28°C.**
Subtropical monsoon conditions in early August typically sustain elevated overnight lows through high humidity (often 50-80%) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies, preventing drops below seasonal norms of 25-28°C. Recent model consensus shows stable warm air masses with no incoming cold fronts or significant rain events that could enhance cooling, supporting the tight clustering around 27-29°C outcomes. Historical August data reinforces this baseline, with rare deviations only from atypical typhoon influences or persistent overcast periods—neither of which current guidance projects for this date. Traders appear to weight these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily, as the two-day horizon limits major shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$217End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a minimum temperature of 28°C for Shanghai on August 6, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probability of 53% for 28°C.** Subtropical monsoon conditions in early August typically sustain elevated overnight lows through high humidity (often 50-80%) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies, preventing drops below seasonal norms of 25-28°C. Recent model consensus shows stable warm air masses with no incoming cold fronts or significant rain events that could enhance cooling, supporting the tight clustering around 27-29°C outcomes. Historical August data reinforces this baseline, with rare deviations only from atypical typhoon influences or persistent overcast periods—neither of which current guidance projects for this date. Traders appear to weight these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily, as the two-day horizon limits major shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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