Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 4 project a daytime maximum of 28°C, with ensemble models showing a narrow range centered on 27–29°C as a warm air mass begins yielding to more unsettled Atlantic flow. This underpins the tight market clustering, where 29°C holds a slight edge at 36.5% implied probability due to residual high pressure and southerly advection that could sustain peak readings near 29°C before cooling sets in. Key variables include daytime cloud cover, wind shifts, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C locally; historical August maxima average near 24°C, making current conditions unusually warm. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 4?
Highest temperature in London on August 4?
29°C 37%
28°C 31%
27°C 20%
30°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
20%
28°C
31%
29°C
37%
30°C
11%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 37%
28°C 31%
27°C 20%
30°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
25°C or below
$181 Vol.
1%
26°C
$147 Vol.
4%
27°C
$229 Vol.
20%
28°C
$236 Vol.
31%
29°C
$738 Vol.
37%
30°C
$122 Vol.
11%
31°C
$111 Vol.
3%
32°C
$32 Vol.
1%
33°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$149 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 4 project a daytime maximum of 28°C, with ensemble models showing a narrow range centered on 27–29°C as a warm air mass begins yielding to more unsettled Atlantic flow. This underpins the tight market clustering, where 29°C holds a slight edge at 36.5% implied probability due to residual high pressure and southerly advection that could sustain peak readings near 29°C before cooling sets in. Key variables include daytime cloud cover, wind shifts, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C locally; historical August maxima average near 24°C, making current conditions unusually warm. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,198End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 4 project a daytime maximum of 28°C, with ensemble models showing a narrow range centered on 27–29°C as a warm air mass begins yielding to more unsettled Atlantic flow. This underpins the tight market clustering, where 29°C holds a slight edge at 36.5% implied probability due to residual high pressure and southerly advection that could sustain peak readings near 29°C before cooling sets in. Key variables include daytime cloud cover, wind shifts, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C locally; historical August maxima average near 24°C, making current conditions unusually warm. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,198End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 4 project a daytime maximum of 28°C, with ensemble models showing a narrow range centered on 27–29°C as a warm air mass begins yielding to more unsettled Atlantic flow. This underpins the tight market clustering, where 29°C holds a slight edge at 36.5% implied probability due to residual high pressure and southerly advection that could sustain peak readings near 29°C before cooling sets in. Key variables include daytime cloud cover, wind shifts, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C locally; historical August maxima average near 24°C, making current conditions unusually warm. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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