Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 2?
13°C 56%
12°C 32%
14°C 10%
11°C 4%
NEW
$15,210 Vol.
NEW
$15,210 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
32%
13°C
56%
14°C
10%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 56%
12°C 32%
14°C 10%
11°C 4%
NEW
$15,210 Vol.
NEW
$15,210 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
6°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$2,430 Vol.
4%
12°C
$2,957 Vol.
32%
13°C
$2,787 Vol.
56%
14°C
$2,423 Vol.
10%
15°C
$1,464 Vol.
3%
16°C or higher
$337 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,210End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,210End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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