Latest forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project a peak temperature of 37–38°C in Shanghai on August 1 amid subtropical high-pressure influence, partly sunny skies, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions align with typical late-summer patterns where urban heat island effects and southerly flow sustain high readings near or slightly above the 36–37°C climatological baseline. Market-implied odds heavily favor 37°C, reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential due to cloud cover and precipitation chances that could cap extremes. Updated guidance shows stable steering patterns with no significant shifts expected before resolution, though minor revisions in convective timing could nudge the observed high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?
37°C 59%
38°C 29%
39°C 5.5%
40°C 2.9%
NEW
$48,900 Vol.
NEW
$48,900 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
59%
38°C
29%
39°C
6%
40°C
3%
41°C or higher
1%
37°C 59%
38°C 29%
39°C 5.5%
40°C 2.9%
NEW
$48,900 Vol.
NEW
$48,900 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
31°C or below
$830 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,038 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,893 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$16,205 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$8,414 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$9,295 Vol.
59%
38°C
$7,014 Vol.
29%
39°C
$8,255 Vol.
6%
40°C
$3,999 Vol.
3%
41°C or higher
$2,599 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project a peak temperature of 37–38°C in Shanghai on August 1 amid subtropical high-pressure influence, partly sunny skies, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions align with typical late-summer patterns where urban heat island effects and southerly flow sustain high readings near or slightly above the 36–37°C climatological baseline. Market-implied odds heavily favor 37°C, reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential due to cloud cover and precipitation chances that could cap extremes. Updated guidance shows stable steering patterns with no significant shifts expected before resolution, though minor revisions in convective timing could nudge the observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$48,900End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project a peak temperature of 37–38°C in Shanghai on August 1 amid subtropical high-pressure influence, partly sunny skies, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions align with typical late-summer patterns where urban heat island effects and southerly flow sustain high readings near or slightly above the 36–37°C climatological baseline. Market-implied odds heavily favor 37°C, reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential due to cloud cover and precipitation chances that could cap extremes. Updated guidance shows stable steering patterns with no significant shifts expected before resolution, though minor revisions in convective timing could nudge the observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48,900End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project a peak temperature of 37–38°C in Shanghai on August 1 amid subtropical high-pressure influence, partly sunny skies, and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. These conditions align with typical late-summer patterns where urban heat island effects and southerly flow sustain high readings near or slightly above the 36–37°C climatological baseline. Market-implied odds heavily favor 37°C, reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential due to cloud cover and precipitation chances that could cap extremes. Updated guidance shows stable steering patterns with no significant shifts expected before resolution, though minor revisions in convective timing could nudge the observed high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions