Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 2?
76-77°F 32%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 32%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$23 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$23 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
8%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$7 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$8 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$21 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$26 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$6 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco highs near 75–78°F for August 2, driven by persistent ridging and limited onshore flow that has produced a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Marine-layer stratus and the typical afternoon sea breeze continue to moderate coastal readings, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s despite slightly above-average conditions. Model consensus shows low spread for maximum temperature, with historical August climatology (daily highs averaging ~70°F) providing context for why traders assign the highest implied odds to the 76–77°F bin. Updated model runs and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of resolution will be the key variables to watch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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