**Official National Weather Service observations confirm Miami International Airport (KMIA) reached a maximum of 96°F on July 31, 2026, at 1:51 p.m. EDT, establishing a new daily record.** This reading aligns precisely with the market's dominant 96-97°F outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting traders' aggregation of real-time station data over forecast models. A persistent subtropical ridge and ongoing 2026 heat wave—marked by elevated heat-index hours and repeated daily records—drove surface temperatures above the 91°F July normal. Afternoon convection and humidity capped further warming, preventing a push into the upper 90s or beyond. Historical context shows prior July 31 records at 95°F (1986, 1999), making this a clear but not unprecedented outlier under current conditions. Realistic challenges remain limited: minor post-event quality-control adjustments to the official record or rare discrepancies between airport and urban sensors could theoretically shift the bin, though NWS verification makes such revisions improbable. The market's near-certain pricing underscores how skin-in-the-game consensus rapidly incorporates authoritative observational evidence once available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on July 31?
Highest temperature in Miami on July 31?
96-97°F 100.0%
87°F or below <1%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
$48,008 Vol.
$48,008 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
100%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 100.0%
87°F or below <1%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
$48,008 Vol.
$48,008 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
87°F or below
$760 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$3,026 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,542 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$6,733 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$7,688 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$8,723 Vol.
100%
98-99°F
$13,306 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$2,338 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$1,220 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$1,065 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service observations confirm Miami International Airport (KMIA) reached a maximum of 96°F on July 31, 2026, at 1:51 p.m. EDT, establishing a new daily record.** This reading aligns precisely with the market's dominant 96-97°F outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting traders' aggregation of real-time station data over forecast models.
A persistent subtropical ridge and ongoing 2026 heat wave—marked by elevated heat-index hours and repeated daily records—drove surface temperatures above the 91°F July normal. Afternoon convection and humidity capped further warming, preventing a push into the upper 90s or beyond. Historical context shows prior July 31 records at 95°F (1986, 1999), making this a clear but not unprecedented outlier under current conditions.
Realistic challenges remain limited: minor post-event quality-control adjustments to the official record or rare discrepancies between airport and urban sensors could theoretically shift the bin, though NWS verification makes such revisions improbable. The market's near-certain pricing underscores how skin-in-the-game consensus rapidly incorporates authoritative observational evidence once available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$48,008End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service observations confirm Miami International Airport (KMIA) reached a maximum of 96°F on July 31, 2026, at 1:51 p.m. EDT, establishing a new daily record.** This reading aligns precisely with the market's dominant 96-97°F outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting traders' aggregation of real-time station data over forecast models.
A persistent subtropical ridge and ongoing 2026 heat wave—marked by elevated heat-index hours and repeated daily records—drove surface temperatures above the 91°F July normal. Afternoon convection and humidity capped further warming, preventing a push into the upper 90s or beyond. Historical context shows prior July 31 records at 95°F (1986, 1999), making this a clear but not unprecedented outlier under current conditions.
Realistic challenges remain limited: minor post-event quality-control adjustments to the official record or rare discrepancies between airport and urban sensors could theoretically shift the bin, though NWS verification makes such revisions improbable. The market's near-certain pricing underscores how skin-in-the-game consensus rapidly incorporates authoritative observational evidence once available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48,008End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service observations confirm Miami International Airport (KMIA) reached a maximum of 96°F on July 31, 2026, at 1:51 p.m. EDT, establishing a new daily record.** This reading aligns precisely with the market's dominant 96-97°F outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting traders' aggregation of real-time station data over forecast models. A persistent subtropical ridge and ongoing 2026 heat wave—marked by elevated heat-index hours and repeated daily records—drove surface temperatures above the 91°F July normal. Afternoon convection and humidity capped further warming, preventing a push into the upper 90s or beyond. Historical context shows prior July 31 records at 95°F (1986, 1999), making this a clear but not unprecedented outlier under current conditions. Realistic challenges remain limited: minor post-event quality-control adjustments to the official record or rare discrepancies between airport and urban sensors could theoretically shift the bin, though NWS verification makes such revisions improbable. The market's near-certain pricing underscores how skin-in-the-game consensus rapidly incorporates authoritative observational evidence once available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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