Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a minimum air temperature of 23°C on July 31, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reading reflects standard automatic weather station data at reference sites such as the Hong Kong Park, consistent with regional patterns of nocturnal cooling under high humidity and light winds typical of late July. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows near 26–28°C during this period, yet localized conditions including cloud cover and urban heat island effects can produce modest deviations of 2–3°C. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as stronger monsoon surges or measurement revisions at multiple stations, did not materialize before the daily minimum was finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
23°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$69,789 Vol.
$69,789 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
23°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$69,789 Vol.
$69,789 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
$7,532 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$19,201 Vol.
100%
24°C
$11,266 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$17,295 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,322 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$6,380 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,001 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$599 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$374 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$374 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,445 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a minimum air temperature of 23°C on July 31, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reading reflects standard automatic weather station data at reference sites such as the Hong Kong Park, consistent with regional patterns of nocturnal cooling under high humidity and light winds typical of late July. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows near 26–28°C during this period, yet localized conditions including cloud cover and urban heat island effects can produce modest deviations of 2–3°C. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as stronger monsoon surges or measurement revisions at multiple stations, did not materialize before the daily minimum was finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$69,789End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a minimum air temperature of 23°C on July 31, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reading reflects standard automatic weather station data at reference sites such as the Hong Kong Park, consistent with regional patterns of nocturnal cooling under high humidity and light winds typical of late July. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows near 26–28°C during this period, yet localized conditions including cloud cover and urban heat island effects can produce modest deviations of 2–3°C. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as stronger monsoon surges or measurement revisions at multiple stations, did not materialize before the daily minimum was finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$69,789End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a minimum air temperature of 23°C on July 31, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reading reflects standard automatic weather station data at reference sites such as the Hong Kong Park, consistent with regional patterns of nocturnal cooling under high humidity and light winds typical of late July. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows near 26–28°C during this period, yet localized conditions including cloud cover and urban heat island effects can produce modest deviations of 2–3°C. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as stronger monsoon surges or measurement revisions at multiple stations, did not materialize before the daily minimum was finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions