Current weather observations and forecast models from New Zealand's MetService and NIWA indicate a daily maximum of 11°C in Wellington on August 1, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August climatology shows typical highs near 12–14°C amid southerly flows and variable cloud cover, with recent seasonal outlooks favoring near-average or slightly below-average temperatures across the region. The strong consensus reflects real-time data alignment and minimal model spread, though resolution depends on official recorded highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day warming from unexpected northerly shifts or localized measurement differences at the primary station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?
11°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
12°C <1%
5°C or below <1%
NEW
$130,034 Vol.
NEW
$130,034 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
99%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
12°C <1%
5°C or below <1%
NEW
$130,034 Vol.
NEW
$130,034 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
5°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$639 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$3,954 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$12,387 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$21,375 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$44,631 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$18,425 Vol.
99%
12°C
$11,207 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$6,430 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$8,416 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$2,399 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather observations and forecast models from New Zealand's MetService and NIWA indicate a daily maximum of 11°C in Wellington on August 1, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August climatology shows typical highs near 12–14°C amid southerly flows and variable cloud cover, with recent seasonal outlooks favoring near-average or slightly below-average temperatures across the region. The strong consensus reflects real-time data alignment and minimal model spread, though resolution depends on official recorded highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day warming from unexpected northerly shifts or localized measurement differences at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$130,034End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather observations and forecast models from New Zealand's MetService and NIWA indicate a daily maximum of 11°C in Wellington on August 1, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August climatology shows typical highs near 12–14°C amid southerly flows and variable cloud cover, with recent seasonal outlooks favoring near-average or slightly below-average temperatures across the region. The strong consensus reflects real-time data alignment and minimal model spread, though resolution depends on official recorded highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day warming from unexpected northerly shifts or localized measurement differences at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130,034End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current weather observations and forecast models from New Zealand's MetService and NIWA indicate a daily maximum of 11°C in Wellington on August 1, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August climatology shows typical highs near 12–14°C amid southerly flows and variable cloud cover, with recent seasonal outlooks favoring near-average or slightly below-average temperatures across the region. The strong consensus reflects real-time data alignment and minimal model spread, though resolution depends on official recorded highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day warming from unexpected northerly shifts or localized measurement differences at the primary station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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