Current forecasts from major models indicate a daily maximum near 26–27°C for Mexico City on August 2, driven by typical early-August subtropical high pressure and seasonal moisture influx from the Mexican monsoon. Afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers, already evident in recent satellite and radar trends, are expected to limit peak heating while maintaining mild overnight lows around 12–14°C. Historical climatology places early August averages near 22–24°C, but recent multi-day runs from global ensembles show modest warming from clearer morning conditions and slightly elevated 850 hPa temperatures. Trader consensus around the 26–27°C brackets reflects this narrow spread in guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity that could shave 1–2°C from the high if earlier or heavier than modeled. Updated NWS and local service runs tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 2?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 2?
27°C 34%
26°C 28%
28°C 24%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
8%
25°C
10%
26°C
28%
27°C
34%
28°C
24%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
27°C 34%
26°C 28%
28°C 24%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$10 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$8 Vol.
34%
28°C
$1 Vol.
24%
29°C
$6 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$21 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models indicate a daily maximum near 26–27°C for Mexico City on August 2, driven by typical early-August subtropical high pressure and seasonal moisture influx from the Mexican monsoon. Afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers, already evident in recent satellite and radar trends, are expected to limit peak heating while maintaining mild overnight lows around 12–14°C. Historical climatology places early August averages near 22–24°C, but recent multi-day runs from global ensembles show modest warming from clearer morning conditions and slightly elevated 850 hPa temperatures. Trader consensus around the 26–27°C brackets reflects this narrow spread in guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity that could shave 1–2°C from the high if earlier or heavier than modeled. Updated NWS and local service runs tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models indicate a daily maximum near 26–27°C for Mexico City on August 2, driven by typical early-August subtropical high pressure and seasonal moisture influx from the Mexican monsoon. Afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers, already evident in recent satellite and radar trends, are expected to limit peak heating while maintaining mild overnight lows around 12–14°C. Historical climatology places early August averages near 22–24°C, but recent multi-day runs from global ensembles show modest warming from clearer morning conditions and slightly elevated 850 hPa temperatures. Trader consensus around the 26–27°C brackets reflects this narrow spread in guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity that could shave 1–2°C from the high if earlier or heavier than modeled. Updated NWS and local service runs tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from major models indicate a daily maximum near 26–27°C for Mexico City on August 2, driven by typical early-August subtropical high pressure and seasonal moisture influx from the Mexican monsoon. Afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers, already evident in recent satellite and radar trends, are expected to limit peak heating while maintaining mild overnight lows around 12–14°C. Historical climatology places early August averages near 22–24°C, but recent multi-day runs from global ensembles show modest warming from clearer morning conditions and slightly elevated 850 hPa temperatures. Trader consensus around the 26–27°C brackets reflects this narrow spread in guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity that could shave 1–2°C from the high if earlier or heavier than modeled. Updated NWS and local service runs tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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