Forecast models for Shanghai on August 4 indicate overnight lows centered around 26–27°C, consistent with historical early-August averages in the city's humid subtropical climate and recent ensemble guidance showing limited cooling from prevailing southerly flows and high moisture. These conditions, with daytime highs near 34–36°C and minimal frontal activity, position 27°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 26°C, reflecting tight clustering around seasonal baselines rather than extreme deviations. Short-range updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift odds if subtropical high pressure strengthens or weakens, introducing typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
27°C 40%
29°C 16%
28°C 16%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
10%
26°C
22%
27°C
50%
28°C
16%
29°C
11%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 40%
29°C 16%
28°C 16%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
$20 Vol.
2%
22°C
$20 Vol.
10%
23°C
$22 Vol.
2%
24°C
$16 Vol.
3%
25°C
$67 Vol.
10%
26°C
$320 Vol.
22%
27°C
$15 Vol.
50%
28°C
$6 Vol.
16%
29°C
$86 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shanghai on August 4 indicate overnight lows centered around 26–27°C, consistent with historical early-August averages in the city's humid subtropical climate and recent ensemble guidance showing limited cooling from prevailing southerly flows and high moisture. These conditions, with daytime highs near 34–36°C and minimal frontal activity, position 27°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 26°C, reflecting tight clustering around seasonal baselines rather than extreme deviations. Short-range updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift odds if subtropical high pressure strengthens or weakens, introducing typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$582End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shanghai on August 4 indicate overnight lows centered around 26–27°C, consistent with historical early-August averages in the city's humid subtropical climate and recent ensemble guidance showing limited cooling from prevailing southerly flows and high moisture. These conditions, with daytime highs near 34–36°C and minimal frontal activity, position 27°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 26°C, reflecting tight clustering around seasonal baselines rather than extreme deviations. Short-range updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift odds if subtropical high pressure strengthens or weakens, introducing typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$582End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Shanghai on August 4 indicate overnight lows centered around 26–27°C, consistent with historical early-August averages in the city's humid subtropical climate and recent ensemble guidance showing limited cooling from prevailing southerly flows and high moisture. These conditions, with daytime highs near 34–36°C and minimal frontal activity, position 27°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 26°C, reflecting tight clustering around seasonal baselines rather than extreme deviations. Short-range updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift odds if subtropical high pressure strengthens or weakens, introducing typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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