Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
34°C 37%
35°C 36%
33°C 17%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
17%
34°C
37%
35°C
36%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 36%
33°C 17%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$113 Vol.
1%
31°C
$74 Vol.
2%
32°C
$266 Vol.
3%
33°C
$648 Vol.
17%
34°C
$277 Vol.
37%
35°C
$797 Vol.
36%
36°C
$128 Vol.
10%
37°C
$63 Vol.
2%
38°C
$125 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$81 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,613End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,613End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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