Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicates Shanghai will remain under a warm, humid subtropical air mass on August 5, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing near 27–29°C. Persistent high pressure, elevated dew points above 24°C, and minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum above typical late-summer baselines. Ensemble forecasts show only modest day-to-day variability, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 28°C (40%) and 29°C (27%). Updated runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours could shift odds if a localized rain event or wind shift materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
28°C 40%
29°C 26%
27°C 23%
26°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
3%
25°C
6%
26°C
11%
27°C
23%
28°C
40%
29°C
26%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 40%
29°C 26%
27°C 23%
26°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$47 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$120 Vol.
3%
25°C
$83 Vol.
6%
26°C
$48 Vol.
11%
27°C
$224 Vol.
23%
28°C
$153 Vol.
40%
29°C
$471 Vol.
26%
30°C
$179 Vol.
5%
31°C
$52 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$47 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicates Shanghai will remain under a warm, humid subtropical air mass on August 5, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing near 27–29°C. Persistent high pressure, elevated dew points above 24°C, and minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum above typical late-summer baselines. Ensemble forecasts show only modest day-to-day variability, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 28°C (40%) and 29°C (27%). Updated runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours could shift odds if a localized rain event or wind shift materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,449End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicates Shanghai will remain under a warm, humid subtropical air mass on August 5, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing near 27–29°C. Persistent high pressure, elevated dew points above 24°C, and minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum above typical late-summer baselines. Ensemble forecasts show only modest day-to-day variability, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 28°C (40%) and 29°C (27%). Updated runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours could shift odds if a localized rain event or wind shift materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,449End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicates Shanghai will remain under a warm, humid subtropical air mass on August 5, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing near 27–29°C. Persistent high pressure, elevated dew points above 24°C, and minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum above typical late-summer baselines. Ensemble forecasts show only modest day-to-day variability, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 28°C (40%) and 29°C (27%). Updated runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours could shift odds if a localized rain event or wind shift materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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