Recent short-term forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com project a high near 27°C (81°F) for Tokyo on August 3, driven by overcast skies and passing showers that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes clustering at 26–28°C, reflecting trader consensus on reduced insolation amid typical early-August humidity and weak steering patterns. Broader seasonal context shows Tokyo averages near 31°C, but model runs highlight day-to-day variability from transient cloud cover rather than persistent high-pressure dominance. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model ensembles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
27°C 39%
26°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
26%
27°C
39%
28°C
25%
29°C
8%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 39%
26°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
$234 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$699 Vol.
2%
25°C
$77 Vol.
6%
26°C
$324 Vol.
26%
27°C
$672 Vol.
39%
28°C
$71 Vol.
25%
29°C
$73 Vol.
8%
30°C
$81 Vol.
3%
31°C
$211 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$139 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com project a high near 27°C (81°F) for Tokyo on August 3, driven by overcast skies and passing showers that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes clustering at 26–28°C, reflecting trader consensus on reduced insolation amid typical early-August humidity and weak steering patterns. Broader seasonal context shows Tokyo averages near 31°C, but model runs highlight day-to-day variability from transient cloud cover rather than persistent high-pressure dominance. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model ensembles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,840End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com project a high near 27°C (81°F) for Tokyo on August 3, driven by overcast skies and passing showers that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes clustering at 26–28°C, reflecting trader consensus on reduced insolation amid typical early-August humidity and weak steering patterns. Broader seasonal context shows Tokyo averages near 31°C, but model runs highlight day-to-day variability from transient cloud cover rather than persistent high-pressure dominance. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model ensembles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,840End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com project a high near 27°C (81°F) for Tokyo on August 3, driven by overcast skies and passing showers that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes clustering at 26–28°C, reflecting trader consensus on reduced insolation amid typical early-August humidity and weak steering patterns. Broader seasonal context shows Tokyo averages near 31°C, but model runs highlight day-to-day variability from transient cloud cover rather than persistent high-pressure dominance. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model ensembles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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