Recent short-range forecasts from regional models point to a likely daily maximum of 29–31°C in Hong Kong on August 4, with showers and elevated humidity expected to limit peak heating and keep readings near the lower end of the typical August range. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 favors normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with background warming trends and current ENSO-neutral conditions, yet day-to-day variability from cloud cover and rainfall timing creates genuine uncertainty between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Traders appear to weight the possibility of persistent showers or stronger onshore flow that could cap temperatures at 29°C, while still assigning meaningful probability to a brief clearing that allows 30°C. Updated model runs and the official Hong Kong Observatory forecast issued on August 4 will serve as the primary resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
30°C 41%
29°C 34%
31°C 16%
28°C 8%
NEW
$72,825 Vol.
NEW
$72,825 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C
34%
30°C
41%
31°C
16%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 41%
29°C 34%
31°C 16%
28°C 8%
NEW
$72,825 Vol.
NEW
$72,825 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
$637 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$987 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$960 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,989 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$12,251 Vol.
1%
28°C
$11,590 Vol.
8%
29°C
$4,768 Vol.
34%
30°C
$12,311 Vol.
41%
31°C
$7,920 Vol.
16%
32°C
$6,606 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$6,806 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts from regional models point to a likely daily maximum of 29–31°C in Hong Kong on August 4, with showers and elevated humidity expected to limit peak heating and keep readings near the lower end of the typical August range. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 favors normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with background warming trends and current ENSO-neutral conditions, yet day-to-day variability from cloud cover and rainfall timing creates genuine uncertainty between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Traders appear to weight the possibility of persistent showers or stronger onshore flow that could cap temperatures at 29°C, while still assigning meaningful probability to a brief clearing that allows 30°C. Updated model runs and the official Hong Kong Observatory forecast issued on August 4 will serve as the primary resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$72,825End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts from regional models point to a likely daily maximum of 29–31°C in Hong Kong on August 4, with showers and elevated humidity expected to limit peak heating and keep readings near the lower end of the typical August range. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 favors normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with background warming trends and current ENSO-neutral conditions, yet day-to-day variability from cloud cover and rainfall timing creates genuine uncertainty between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Traders appear to weight the possibility of persistent showers or stronger onshore flow that could cap temperatures at 29°C, while still assigning meaningful probability to a brief clearing that allows 30°C. Updated model runs and the official Hong Kong Observatory forecast issued on August 4 will serve as the primary resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,825End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from regional models point to a likely daily maximum of 29–31°C in Hong Kong on August 4, with showers and elevated humidity expected to limit peak heating and keep readings near the lower end of the typical August range. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October 2026 favors normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with background warming trends and current ENSO-neutral conditions, yet day-to-day variability from cloud cover and rainfall timing creates genuine uncertainty between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Traders appear to weight the possibility of persistent showers or stronger onshore flow that could cap temperatures at 29°C, while still assigning meaningful probability to a brief clearing that allows 30°C. Updated model runs and the official Hong Kong Observatory forecast issued on August 4 will serve as the primary resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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