Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Chicago's August 3 high will likely fall in the upper 70s to low 80s, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins attracting the strongest trader support amid closely matched implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include Lake Michigan's moderating lake-breeze circulation, which strengthens under northeast flow and can cap afternoon maxima by several degrees, versus daytime heating under partly sunny skies if winds remain lighter or shift southerly. Current model consensus shows modest warming from a passing ridge but lingering marine influence and possible cloud debris keeping readings near or slightly below the 83.8°F August 3 normal. Updated NWS forecast discussions and afternoon observations will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 3?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 3?
78-79°F 40%
80-81°F 37%
76-77°F 18%
82-83°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
40%
80-81°F
37%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 40%
80-81°F 37%
76-77°F 18%
82-83°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$160 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$26 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$4 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$80 Vol.
40%
80-81°F
$189 Vol.
37%
82-83°F
$70 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$46 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$46 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Chicago's August 3 high will likely fall in the upper 70s to low 80s, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins attracting the strongest trader support amid closely matched implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include Lake Michigan's moderating lake-breeze circulation, which strengthens under northeast flow and can cap afternoon maxima by several degrees, versus daytime heating under partly sunny skies if winds remain lighter or shift southerly. Current model consensus shows modest warming from a passing ridge but lingering marine influence and possible cloud debris keeping readings near or slightly below the 83.8°F August 3 normal. Updated NWS forecast discussions and afternoon observations will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$657End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Chicago's August 3 high will likely fall in the upper 70s to low 80s, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins attracting the strongest trader support amid closely matched implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include Lake Michigan's moderating lake-breeze circulation, which strengthens under northeast flow and can cap afternoon maxima by several degrees, versus daytime heating under partly sunny skies if winds remain lighter or shift southerly. Current model consensus shows modest warming from a passing ridge but lingering marine influence and possible cloud debris keeping readings near or slightly below the 83.8°F August 3 normal. Updated NWS forecast discussions and afternoon observations will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$657End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Chicago's August 3 high will likely fall in the upper 70s to low 80s, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins attracting the strongest trader support amid closely matched implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include Lake Michigan's moderating lake-breeze circulation, which strengthens under northeast flow and can cap afternoon maxima by several degrees, versus daytime heating under partly sunny skies if winds remain lighter or shift southerly. Current model consensus shows modest warming from a passing ridge but lingering marine influence and possible cloud debris keeping readings near or slightly below the 83.8°F August 3 normal. Updated NWS forecast discussions and afternoon observations will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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