Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate a cool air mass over Wellington, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 10°C on August 4 amid typical winter southerly flows and limited daytime heating. This aligns with the market's strong implied probability for 10°C at 57.5%, followed by 11°C at 26.5%, reflecting model consensus on modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than warmer anomalies. Historical August averages hover around 13°C, but current steering patterns and ensemble outputs favor the cooler side of climatology. Official resolution will rely on verified station data, with traders watching any final model runs or observational updates in the next 48 hours that could shift probabilities if conditions moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4?
10°C 58%
11°C 27%
9°C 12%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
4%
8°C
2%
9°C
12%
10°C
58%
11°C
27%
12°C
5%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 58%
11°C 27%
9°C 12%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
4°C or below
$433 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$323 Vol.
1%
7°C
$20 Vol.
4%
8°C
$256 Vol.
2%
9°C
$183 Vol.
12%
10°C
$459 Vol.
58%
11°C
$432 Vol.
27%
12°C
$138 Vol.
5%
13°C
$148 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate a cool air mass over Wellington, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 10°C on August 4 amid typical winter southerly flows and limited daytime heating. This aligns with the market's strong implied probability for 10°C at 57.5%, followed by 11°C at 26.5%, reflecting model consensus on modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than warmer anomalies. Historical August averages hover around 13°C, but current steering patterns and ensemble outputs favor the cooler side of climatology. Official resolution will rely on verified station data, with traders watching any final model runs or observational updates in the next 48 hours that could shift probabilities if conditions moderate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,911End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate a cool air mass over Wellington, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 10°C on August 4 amid typical winter southerly flows and limited daytime heating. This aligns with the market's strong implied probability for 10°C at 57.5%, followed by 11°C at 26.5%, reflecting model consensus on modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than warmer anomalies. Historical August averages hover around 13°C, but current steering patterns and ensemble outputs favor the cooler side of climatology. Official resolution will rely on verified station data, with traders watching any final model runs or observational updates in the next 48 hours that could shift probabilities if conditions moderate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,911End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate a cool air mass over Wellington, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 10°C on August 4 amid typical winter southerly flows and limited daytime heating. This aligns with the market's strong implied probability for 10°C at 57.5%, followed by 11°C at 26.5%, reflecting model consensus on modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than warmer anomalies. Historical August averages hover around 13°C, but current steering patterns and ensemble outputs favor the cooler side of climatology. Official resolution will rely on verified station data, with traders watching any final model runs or observational updates in the next 48 hours that could shift probabilities if conditions moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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