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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Aug 7

Aug 8

Aug 9

Aug 7

Aug 8

Aug 9

35°C 38%

36°C 27%

37°C 17%

34°C 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$15,030 Vol.

35°C 38%

36°C 27%

37°C 17%

34°C 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$15,030 Vol.

31°C or below

$934 Vol.

<1%

32°C

$3,154 Vol.

1%

33°C

$1,337 Vol.

5%

34°C

$1,331 Vol.

13%

35°C

$2,108 Vol.

38%

36°C

$1,641 Vol.

27%

37°C

$1,529 Vol.

17%

38°C

$1,791 Vol.

4%

39°C

$433 Vol.

<1%

40°C

$382 Vol.

<1%

41°C or higher

$390 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights persistent extremely hot conditions through mid-August 2026, driven by subsidence under a subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover, supporting daily maxima near or above 35°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts points to urban maxima around 35–36°C on August 9, tempered by possible isolated showers or increased humidity that could cap peaks or enhance the heat index. Seasonal outlooks reinforce normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, while short-range uncertainty in steering flows and convective timing keeps trader probabilities tightly distributed between 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,030
End Date
Aug 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlights persistent extremely hot conditions through mid-August 2026, driven by subsidence under a subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover, supporting daily maxima near or above 35°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts points to urban maxima around 35–36°C on August 9, tempered by possible isolated showers or increased humidity that could cap peaks or enhance the heat index. Seasonal outlooks reinforce normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, while short-range uncertainty in steering flows and convective timing keeps trader probabilities tightly distributed between 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,030
End Date
Aug 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35°C" at 38%, followed by "36°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?" is "35°C" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "36°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.