Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for above-normal temperatures through October, combined with short-range model consensus showing mostly cloudy conditions but possible subsidence under high pressure on August 8, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 34–35 °C. Subtropical summer dynamics—including high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling, urban heat-island amplification in the Kowloon and Hong Kong Island districts, and variable cloud cover controlling incoming solar radiation—create a narrow range where small differences in forecast timing or wind direction can shift daily maxima by 1–2 °C. With no nearby tropical cyclone expected to enhance mixing or cloudiness, the modest probability mass on 36–37 °C reflects residual model spread on afternoon clearing, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent stronger monsoon surges. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
35°C 36%
34°C 25%
37°C 21%
36°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
25%
35°C
36%
36°C
16%
37°C
21%
38°C
2%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 36%
34°C 25%
37°C 21%
36°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
31°C or below
$412 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$90 Vol.
3%
33°C
$670 Vol.
8%
34°C
$516 Vol.
25%
35°C
$796 Vol.
36%
36°C
$533 Vol.
16%
37°C
$1,047 Vol.
21%
38°C
$152 Vol.
2%
39°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for above-normal temperatures through October, combined with short-range model consensus showing mostly cloudy conditions but possible subsidence under high pressure on August 8, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 34–35 °C. Subtropical summer dynamics—including high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling, urban heat-island amplification in the Kowloon and Hong Kong Island districts, and variable cloud cover controlling incoming solar radiation—create a narrow range where small differences in forecast timing or wind direction can shift daily maxima by 1–2 °C. With no nearby tropical cyclone expected to enhance mixing or cloudiness, the modest probability mass on 36–37 °C reflects residual model spread on afternoon clearing, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent stronger monsoon surges. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,995End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for above-normal temperatures through October, combined with short-range model consensus showing mostly cloudy conditions but possible subsidence under high pressure on August 8, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 34–35 °C. Subtropical summer dynamics—including high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling, urban heat-island amplification in the Kowloon and Hong Kong Island districts, and variable cloud cover controlling incoming solar radiation—create a narrow range where small differences in forecast timing or wind direction can shift daily maxima by 1–2 °C. With no nearby tropical cyclone expected to enhance mixing or cloudiness, the modest probability mass on 36–37 °C reflects residual model spread on afternoon clearing, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent stronger monsoon surges. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,995End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for above-normal temperatures through October, combined with short-range model consensus showing mostly cloudy conditions but possible subsidence under high pressure on August 8, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 34–35 °C. Subtropical summer dynamics—including high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling, urban heat-island amplification in the Kowloon and Hong Kong Island districts, and variable cloud cover controlling incoming solar radiation—create a narrow range where small differences in forecast timing or wind direction can shift daily maxima by 1–2 °C. With no nearby tropical cyclone expected to enhance mixing or cloudiness, the modest probability mass on 36–37 °C reflects residual model spread on afternoon clearing, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent stronger monsoon surges. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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