Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern France will deliver largely sunny conditions and light southerly flow to Paris by August 8, supporting daily maxima centered on 30–31 °C. These model runs show minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk after early morning, allowing strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Market-implied probabilities reflect this consensus, with traders assigning the highest weight to 30 °C while retaining meaningful probability on 31 °C pending the next high-resolution updates. The primary remaining uncertainty lies in exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shifts in the ridge axis that could alter peak temperatures by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 8?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 8?
30°C 43%
31°C 28%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
16%
30°C
43%
31°C
28%
32°C
14%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
2%
30°C 43%
31°C 28%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
1%
27°C
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$70 Vol.
7%
29°C
$48 Vol.
16%
30°C
$242 Vol.
43%
31°C
$5 Vol.
28%
32°C
$5 Vol.
14%
33°C
$5 Vol.
5%
34°C
$27 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern France will deliver largely sunny conditions and light southerly flow to Paris by August 8, supporting daily maxima centered on 30–31 °C. These model runs show minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk after early morning, allowing strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Market-implied probabilities reflect this consensus, with traders assigning the highest weight to 30 °C while retaining meaningful probability on 31 °C pending the next high-resolution updates. The primary remaining uncertainty lies in exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shifts in the ridge axis that could alter peak temperatures by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern France will deliver largely sunny conditions and light southerly flow to Paris by August 8, supporting daily maxima centered on 30–31 °C. These model runs show minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk after early morning, allowing strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Market-implied probabilities reflect this consensus, with traders assigning the highest weight to 30 °C while retaining meaningful probability on 31 °C pending the next high-resolution updates. The primary remaining uncertainty lies in exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shifts in the ridge axis that could alter peak temperatures by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern France will deliver largely sunny conditions and light southerly flow to Paris by August 8, supporting daily maxima centered on 30–31 °C. These model runs show minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk after early morning, allowing strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Market-implied probabilities reflect this consensus, with traders assigning the highest weight to 30 °C while retaining meaningful probability on 31 °C pending the next high-resolution updates. The primary remaining uncertainty lies in exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shifts in the ridge axis that could alter peak temperatures by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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