The market's clustering around 29–30°C reflects PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila, which currently forecasts a 30–32°C high on August 11 amid southwest monsoon (habagat) flow expected to bring widespread cloud cover and scattered rain. This pattern typically suppresses peak temperatures below August climatological averages of near 31°C by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day shifts, with rain chances near 60% supporting the modest implied probabilities for 31–32°C outcomes, while historical monsoon analogs rarely push Manila above 33°C in mid-August. Updated PAGASA outlooks and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any intensification or clearing trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 11?
29°C 36%
30°C 23%
31°C 16%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
9%
28°C
16%
29°C
27%
30°C
23%
31°C
16%
32°C
11%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 23%
31°C 16%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
25°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
26°C
$15 Vol.
5%
27°C
$2 Vol.
9%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C
$6 Vol.
27%
30°C
$0 Vol.
23%
31°C
$0 Vol.
16%
32°C
$0 Vol.
11%
33°C
$27 Vol.
2%
34°C
$5 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's clustering around 29–30°C reflects PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila, which currently forecasts a 30–32°C high on August 11 amid southwest monsoon (habagat) flow expected to bring widespread cloud cover and scattered rain. This pattern typically suppresses peak temperatures below August climatological averages of near 31°C by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day shifts, with rain chances near 60% supporting the modest implied probabilities for 31–32°C outcomes, while historical monsoon analogs rarely push Manila above 33°C in mid-August. Updated PAGASA outlooks and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any intensification or clearing trends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's clustering around 29–30°C reflects PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila, which currently forecasts a 30–32°C high on August 11 amid southwest monsoon (habagat) flow expected to bring widespread cloud cover and scattered rain. This pattern typically suppresses peak temperatures below August climatological averages of near 31°C by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day shifts, with rain chances near 60% supporting the modest implied probabilities for 31–32°C outcomes, while historical monsoon analogs rarely push Manila above 33°C in mid-August. Updated PAGASA outlooks and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any intensification or clearing trends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's clustering around 29–30°C reflects PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila, which currently forecasts a 30–32°C high on August 11 amid southwest monsoon (habagat) flow expected to bring widespread cloud cover and scattered rain. This pattern typically suppresses peak temperatures below August climatological averages of near 31°C by limiting solar heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day shifts, with rain chances near 60% supporting the modest implied probabilities for 31–32°C outcomes, while historical monsoon analogs rarely push Manila above 33°C in mid-August. Updated PAGASA outlooks and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any intensification or clearing trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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