Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds across central Spain favor strong daytime solar heating and modest elevation of Madrid’s maximum temperature above the 32–34°C August climatological average. Latest AEMET guidance and regional model consensus point to a 37°C peak on 9 August, aligning with the market’s 59% implied probability for that outcome. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only minor urban heat-island amplification or slight warming trends able to push readings to 38°C (19.5% odds) or hold them at 36°C (21.5%). No significant moisture or frontal passage is expected before resolution, keeping the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range summer forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 9?
37°C 57%
38°C 22%
36°C 21%
35°C 3%
NEW
$24,252 Vol.
NEW
$24,252 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
3%
36°C
21%
37°C
57%
38°C
22%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 57%
38°C 22%
36°C 21%
35°C 3%
NEW
$24,252 Vol.
NEW
$24,252 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
32°C or below
$358 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$821 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,562 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$2,446 Vol.
3%
36°C
$4,652 Vol.
21%
37°C
$3,496 Vol.
57%
38°C
$3,496 Vol.
22%
39°C
$1,288 Vol.
1%
40°C
$1,074 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$693 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds across central Spain favor strong daytime solar heating and modest elevation of Madrid’s maximum temperature above the 32–34°C August climatological average. Latest AEMET guidance and regional model consensus point to a 37°C peak on 9 August, aligning with the market’s 59% implied probability for that outcome. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only minor urban heat-island amplification or slight warming trends able to push readings to 38°C (19.5% odds) or hold them at 36°C (21.5%). No significant moisture or frontal passage is expected before resolution, keeping the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range summer forecasts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$24,252End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds across central Spain favor strong daytime solar heating and modest elevation of Madrid’s maximum temperature above the 32–34°C August climatological average. Latest AEMET guidance and regional model consensus point to a 37°C peak on 9 August, aligning with the market’s 59% implied probability for that outcome. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only minor urban heat-island amplification or slight warming trends able to push readings to 38°C (19.5% odds) or hold them at 36°C (21.5%). No significant moisture or frontal passage is expected before resolution, keeping the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range summer forecasts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,252End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds across central Spain favor strong daytime solar heating and modest elevation of Madrid’s maximum temperature above the 32–34°C August climatological average. Latest AEMET guidance and regional model consensus point to a 37°C peak on 9 August, aligning with the market’s 59% implied probability for that outcome. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only minor urban heat-island amplification or slight warming trends able to push readings to 38°C (19.5% odds) or hold them at 36°C (21.5%). No significant moisture or frontal passage is expected before resolution, keeping the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range summer forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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