Recent model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and European forecasts points to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Warsaw on August 10, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward those bins. A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to limit cloud cover and support modest surface heating, yet increasing southerly flow and a chance of late-day showers could cap the peak and introduce variability. These conditions follow an early-August heatwave that saw verified readings above 35°C, providing traders context on typical late-summer variability around Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend remain the key catalysts likely to shift the 30–32°C probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
30°C 41%
31°C 27%
29°C 18%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
10%
29°C
18%
30°C
41%
31°C
30%
32°C
15%
33°C
2%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
30°C 41%
31°C 27%
29°C 18%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
27°C
$17 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
10%
29°C
$5 Vol.
18%
30°C
$10 Vol.
41%
31°C
$24 Vol.
30%
32°C
$10 Vol.
15%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C
$5 Vol.
3%
35°C
$17 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and European forecasts points to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Warsaw on August 10, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward those bins. A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to limit cloud cover and support modest surface heating, yet increasing southerly flow and a chance of late-day showers could cap the peak and introduce variability. These conditions follow an early-August heatwave that saw verified readings above 35°C, providing traders context on typical late-summer variability around Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend remain the key catalysts likely to shift the 30–32°C probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$127End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and European forecasts points to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Warsaw on August 10, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward those bins. A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to limit cloud cover and support modest surface heating, yet increasing southerly flow and a chance of late-day showers could cap the peak and introduce variability. These conditions follow an early-August heatwave that saw verified readings above 35°C, providing traders context on typical late-summer variability around Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend remain the key catalysts likely to shift the 30–32°C probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$127End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and European forecasts points to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C in Warsaw on August 10, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward those bins. A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to limit cloud cover and support modest surface heating, yet increasing southerly flow and a chance of late-day showers could cap the peak and introduce variability. These conditions follow an early-August heatwave that saw verified readings above 35°C, providing traders context on typical late-summer variability around Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend remain the key catalysts likely to shift the 30–32°C probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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