**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity. Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 18%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
18%
25°C
47%
26°C
29%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 18%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$460 Vol.
1%
22°C
$762 Vol.
1%
23°C
$247 Vol.
3%
24°C
$972 Vol.
18%
25°C
$923 Vol.
47%
26°C
$514 Vol.
29%
27°C
$369 Vol.
4%
28°C
$470 Vol.
2%
29°C
$238 Vol.
1%
30°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity.
Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,675End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity.
Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,675End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity. Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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