Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Beijing on August 9, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 43.5% and 29.5% implied probability. This reflects the transition around the Beginning of Autumn solar term, which typically initiates gradual cooling from peak summer highs, combined with moderate humidity and limited frontal activity. Model consensus shows low spread, though minor variations in cloud cover or local wind patterns could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide additional context for trader positioning, with resolution depending on verified observations from central Beijing stations. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 9?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 9?
32°C 45%
31°C 32%
33°C 16%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
32%
32°C
45%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
2%
32°C 45%
31°C 32%
33°C 16%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
25°C or below
$426 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$698 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$390 Vol.
2%
30°C
$605 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,008 Vol.
32%
32°C
$1,465 Vol.
45%
33°C
$1,374 Vol.
16%
34°C
$496 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$500 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Beijing on August 9, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 43.5% and 29.5% implied probability. This reflects the transition around the Beginning of Autumn solar term, which typically initiates gradual cooling from peak summer highs, combined with moderate humidity and limited frontal activity. Model consensus shows low spread, though minor variations in cloud cover or local wind patterns could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide additional context for trader positioning, with resolution depending on verified observations from central Beijing stations. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$8,443End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Beijing on August 9, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 43.5% and 29.5% implied probability. This reflects the transition around the Beginning of Autumn solar term, which typically initiates gradual cooling from peak summer highs, combined with moderate humidity and limited frontal activity. Model consensus shows low spread, though minor variations in cloud cover or local wind patterns could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide additional context for trader positioning, with resolution depending on verified observations from central Beijing stations. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,443End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies converge on a daily maximum of 31–32°C for Beijing on August 9, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 43.5% and 29.5% implied probability. This reflects the transition around the Beginning of Autumn solar term, which typically initiates gradual cooling from peak summer highs, combined with moderate humidity and limited frontal activity. Model consensus shows low spread, though minor variations in cloud cover or local wind patterns could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide additional context for trader positioning, with resolution depending on verified observations from central Beijing stations. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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