Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlights stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies supporting a maximum temperature near 32–34°C in Beijing on August 10, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, afternoon wind speeds, and low-level moisture advection explain the spread between 32°C and 34°C, while the lower probability assigned to 35°C+ reflects limited potential for stronger subsidence or urban heat island amplification under current steering patterns. Historical August climatology, with typical highs near 30–32°C, provides context for the modest upside bias in trader positioning ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 10?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?
33°C 32%
34°C 27%
32°C 23%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
7%
32°C
23%
33°C
32%
34°C
27%
35°C
12%
36°C
5%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
1%
33°C 32%
34°C 27%
32°C 23%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
28°C or below
$238 Vol.
1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
2%
30°C
$3 Vol.
5%
31°C
$0 Vol.
7%
32°C
$0 Vol.
23%
33°C
$13 Vol.
32%
34°C
$8 Vol.
27%
35°C
$9 Vol.
12%
36°C
$17 Vol.
5%
37°C
$5 Vol.
3%
38°C or higher
$66 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlights stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies supporting a maximum temperature near 32–34°C in Beijing on August 10, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, afternoon wind speeds, and low-level moisture advection explain the spread between 32°C and 34°C, while the lower probability assigned to 35°C+ reflects limited potential for stronger subsidence or urban heat island amplification under current steering patterns. Historical August climatology, with typical highs near 30–32°C, provides context for the modest upside bias in trader positioning ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$368End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlights stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies supporting a maximum temperature near 32–34°C in Beijing on August 10, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, afternoon wind speeds, and low-level moisture advection explain the spread between 32°C and 34°C, while the lower probability assigned to 35°C+ reflects limited potential for stronger subsidence or urban heat island amplification under current steering patterns. Historical August climatology, with typical highs near 30–32°C, provides context for the modest upside bias in trader positioning ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$368End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlights stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies supporting a maximum temperature near 32–34°C in Beijing on August 10, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, afternoon wind speeds, and low-level moisture advection explain the spread between 32°C and 34°C, while the lower probability assigned to 35°C+ reflects limited potential for stronger subsidence or urban heat island amplification under current steering patterns. Historical August climatology, with typical highs near 30–32°C, provides context for the modest upside bias in trader positioning ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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