**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.** Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
12°C 47%
13°C 44%
14°C 6%
11°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
47%
13°C
44%
14°C
6%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 47%
13°C 44%
14°C 6%
11°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
$503 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$27 Vol.
2%
11°C
$627 Vol.
5%
12°C
$844 Vol.
47%
13°C
$1,473 Vol.
44%
14°C
$614 Vol.
6%
15°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$498 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.**
Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,125End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.**
Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,125End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.** Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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